terça-feira, 17 de maio de 2016

Avoiding a War in Space
An illustration shows the many objects being tracked in low Earth orbit. (European Space Agency)
Space is becoming more congested, contested and competitive. Since the Soviet Union put Sputnik I in space in 1957, no nation has deliberately destroyed another's satellite in orbit. But there is a growing possibility that battles could start to be waged in space. While the militarization of space started long ago, a number of technological developments and tests over the past decade show that the race toward its weaponization is accelerating. For the United States, being the leader in military space technologies provides immense advantages, but its outsize reliance on those technologies entails risks. The current unequal dependence on space, the United States fears, could give adversaries incentive to attack its infrastructure in orbit. Washington is therefore pushing to bolster its capabilities and is preparing for a potential conflict that could escalate into space. Click here to continue reading…

terça-feira, 10 de maio de 2016

South China Sea: U.S. Sails Warship Near China-Controlled Reef

May 10, 2016 | 07:56 GMT

A U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyer carried out a freedom of navigation operation neara disputed reef in the South China Sea on May 10, the Pentagon said, and the South China Morning Post and Reuters reported. The operation, which took place within 12 nautical miles of Chinese-occupied Fiery Cross Reef, in the Spratly archipelago, was intended to "challenge excessive maritime claims of some claimants in the South China Sea,” according to the Pentagon. The operation occurred shortly after the Chinese military carried out a combat drill involving its most advanced warships. In pursuit of their respective interests, the United States and China have chosen to interpret international maritime law differently.
No economic purpose -- Blanchard (ex-economista-chefe FMI) e Pikettyn e Sachs assinam
«Among the signatories were Thomas Piketty, author of the best-selling "Capital in the Twenty-First Century," and Angus Deaton, the Edinburgh- born 2015 Nobel Prize-winner for economics. Influential experts who advise policymakers, such as Jeffrey Sachs, director of Columbia University's Earth Institute and adviser to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and Olivier Blanchard, former IMF chief economist also penned their names to the letter - along with forty-seven professors from British universities.»
Tax havens such as Panama "serve no useful economic purpose", according to a coalition of more than 300 of the world's most senior economists. Leading…
TELEGRAPH.CO.UK

quarta-feira, 4 de maio de 2016

China and Japan Compete for Southeast Asia's Railways

May 4, 2016 | 09:31 GMT

China and Japan Compete for Southeast Asia's Railways
Maintenance workers toil on a railway over the century-old Long Bien bridge in Hanoi, Vietnam. The Asian Development Bank estimates that to sustain its economic growth, Southeast Asia must invest $8 trillion by 2020 in improving its infrastructure. (HOANG DINH NAM/AFP/Getty Images)
China and Japan's competition for commercial influence in Southeast Asia is heating up, and this time their rivalry has centered on the Malay Peninsula. In the coming months, Singapore and Malaysia are expected to move forward on a joint high-speed rail project that will connect five cities between Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. The 350-kilometer (about 217-mile) line is a key part of the geographically fragmented region's broader integration goals and, like other a number of other infrastructure projects in Southeast Asia, a priority for both Tokyo and Beijing.
China is hoping to use its vast capital reserves, high risk tolerance and strategic investments in the region to turn the project into part of a 1,700-kilometer, pan-Asian rail network connecting Singapore to Kunming, China. But Japan has its own plans for the railway's future. Tokyo is seeking to leverage its superior rail technologies, substantial foreign aid packages and deep commercial ties with Singapore and Malaysia to keep itself from being further sidelined in regional rail construction — a sector it once dominated. Regardless of how China and Japan's latest tussle plays out, Southeast Asian states will decide the contest based not only on economics but also on the broader geopolitical dynamics of the region, all the while doing their best to exploit the situation to get better deals on much-needed infrastructure improvements. Click here to continue reading…

terça-feira, 3 de maio de 2016

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Conversation: China's Increasing Involvement in Central Asia

May 3, 2016 | 20:40 GMT

Conversation: China's Increasing Involvement in Central Asia
Stratfor Vice President of Asia-Pacific Analysis Rodger Baker and Asia-Pacific Analyst Roman Muzalevsky discuss China's growing economic and security interests in Central Asia. Click here to continue watching…

Bad Blood Still Flows Between Algeria and Morocco

May 3, 2016 | 09:30 GMT

Bad Blood Still Flows Between Algeria and Morocco
A Polisario Front member shows a map of Western Sahara at a museum in the Sahrawi refugee camp of Rabouni. (FAROUK BATICHE/AFP/Getty Images)
Suspicion and unease are creeping back into Algeria-Morocco relations. There is an undeniable shift in power occurring between the neighboring countries, as Algeria's military spending has outpaced Morocco's over the last few years. Large-scale Algerian arms purchases in 2016 reinforce the likelihood that Algiers will continue investing extensively in its military. As Algeria bolsters its forces, Morocco's position in the region will only get more precarious, especially if a crisis or conflict erupts. To counter Algeria, Rabat will seek alternative strategies to retain its security. But whether Morocco chooses to do so through select military procurements or through alliances, there is no guarantee its forces can match Algeria's new weaponry. Click here to continue reading…

domingo, 1 de maio de 2016

NUCLEAR

Nuclear accidents make mutant bugs and birds

Biologist Timothy Mousseau has spent years collecting mutant bugs, birds and mice around Chernobyl and Fukushima. In a DW interview, he shares some surprising insights into the effects of nuclear accidents on wildlife.
Firebugs collected near Fukushima (Photo: Mousseau & Moller)
DW: Professor Timothy Mousseau, did you collect these mutant firebugs [pictured at the top of the page]?
Timothy Mousseau: Yes, the firebugs are really an eye-opener. My research partner Anders Moller and I were visiting Chernobyl on April 26, 2011. We were wandering around Pripyat collecting flowers, to study their pollen, when Anders reached down to the ground and pulled up this little bug with red and black markings. He said: "Tim, look, it's a mutant - it's missing an eye spot!"
From then on we started collecting these little bugs in each place we visited, from the most contaminated parts of the Red Forest to relatively clean areas in abandoned villages. Eventually we had several hundred of these little critters. It was very obvious that deformed patterns were much more prevalent in areas of high contamination.
This is just one of many similar anecdotes about the deformed critters of Chernobyl. Literally every rock we turn over, we find a signal of the mutagenic properties of the radiation in the region.
Birds from Chernobyl (Photo: T.A. Mousseau)
A pair of great tit birds collected near Chernobyl - left is normal, the individual on the right has a facial tumor
Is there a threshold of radiation below which there's no effect?
The impact of radiation on rates of mutation, cancer and mortality varies a good deal by species. But statistically, there's a simple relationship with dose. Small dose, small effect; big dose, big effect. There doesn't appear to be a threshold below which there's no effect.
Interestingly, organisms living in nature are much more sensitive to radiation than lab animals - comparing mice raised in labs and mice in the wild, exposed to identical levels of ionizing radiation, the mortality rate among wild mice is eight or 10 times that of lab mice. It's because lab animals are protected from most stressors - like cold or hunger.
Are plants and trees affected too?
Yes, we've collected a lot of deformed pollen. Seen a lot of deformed trees, too. Pines often show growth-form abnormalities, even in normal areas with no radionucleotide contamination. Sometimes it's an insect infestation, sometimes a hard freeze at the wrong time - you can find such anomalies anywhere.
But in contaminated areas of Ukraine, we have a correlation between frequency of abnormality and the Chernobyl event. It's pretty strong evidence. There was a recent paper showing a very similar phenomenon in Fukushima. The trees there are very young, but will likely also be twisted up in knots 30 years from now!
Timothy Mousseau and his crew study the biological effects of nuclear accidents (Photo: T.A. Mousseau)
Mousseau's field crew collecting pollen and insect samples on the left, with the Chernobyl reactor in the distance. Right, a mutant pine tree at Chernobyl
What are the long-term effects of radiation on animal or plant species in contaminated areas? They've had their genomes altered. Will mutants persist?
Well, in the long run, no. The thing is, some background rate of mutations happens constantly in every species, even in uncontaminated areas - albeit at a much lower rate than in areas contaminated by nuclear accidents. So most genetic variants have been tried already. The great majority are either neutral or slightly deleterious. If a mutation had any benefit to offer, it would already be there in the population.
So the long-term effect of nuclear accidents on biodiversity is … none?
Yes, that's right. Over evolutionary time, we expect that populations will return to normal after the mutagen disappears. Radionucleotides decay, hot sites eventually cool down, mutations become less frequent again, and healthy animal and plant populations recolonize the sites. So the genetic status quo ante returns - except if mutations have occurred that permanently enhance fitness, but that's very rare.
Biologists Timothy Mousseau and Anders Moller in the field at Chernobyl (Photo: T.A. Mousseau)
Mousseau (left) and colleague Anders Moller recording measurements in the field at Chernobyl
Some mutations might persist for a while if they're adaptive during the hot phase. For example, there's selection for animals whose cells produce a higher antioxidant load, which makes them more resistant to the effects of ionizing radiation. But that protection comes at a metabolic cost. After radiation levels die down, those variants will be selected back out of the population.
Where things get complicated is when the harmful mutations are recessive, that is, when it takes two copies [one for each chromosome] for the expression of the mutation. Many mutations fall into this category. They can accumulate in populations because they're not expressed until two copies come into the same individual [one from the mother, the other from the father].
Because of this, populations can be affected by such mutations for many generations even after the mutagen is removed, and also, via dispersal, in populations that were never affected by the mutagen.
How can radioactive contamination interact with other problems that affect ecosystems, like habitat loss or climate change?
Certainly climate change is an additional stressor that is likely to interact with radiation to affect populations. We have demonstrated that while swallows in most places have moved their breeding dates forward in response to warming, in the Chernobyl area they are actually delayed. We hypothesize that this is due to the stress from the radioactive contaminants.
Trees on the ground in the Red Forest near Chernobyl in Ukraine (Photo: Mousseau & Moller)
The Red Forest near Chernobyl in Ukraine presents a high risk of fire, as a lack of bacteria prevents the trees from decaying
The biggest fear at present is related to the observation of hotter and drier summers in Ukraine, and the resulting increase in number and size of forest fires. Last summer there were three large fires, and one of them burned through some very contaminated areas.
We have predicted that such events could pose a significant threat to both human populations and the environment via re-suspension and deposition of radionuclides in the leaf litter and plant biomass.
In addition to the threat of catastrophic wildfire spreading nuclear contamination, birds and mammals also move around. Do they absorb radioactive elements in their food and water in contaminated sites, carry them elsewhere, thus dispersing the contamination more widely?
Do animals move radionuclides? Yes! I did a study years ago that showed very significant amounts of radionuclides are exported every year by birds. But it seems unlikely that the amount is enough to cause measurable health effects - unless you're eating the birds. It is known that some people living outside the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone are getting very significant doses from hunting the contaminated wild boar that leave the zone.
Mouse with eye cataract (Photo: T.A. Mousseau)
Mouse with cataract collected near Chernobyl - the more radioactive the site, the higher the frequency of defects
This year marks five years since the Fukushima accident, and 30 years since Chernobyl. How long will the contaminated zones around Chernobyl and Fukushima be mutagenic and dangerous?
Chernobyl was a nuclear fire and ongoing fission event for 10 days, with strontium, uranium and plutonium isotopes strewn into the landscape. They have long half-lives, so many areas will remain hazardous for centuries, even thousands of years.
Fukushima was largely a cesium event, and cesium radionucleotides have a relatively short half-life. The area will mostly naturally decontaminate itself within decades, at most within a couple hundred years.
Timothy Mousseau is a professor of biological sciences at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, South Carolina. He is one of the world's leading experts on the effects of radionucleotide contamination from nuclear accidents on wild bird, insect, rodent, and plant populations.
Interview: Nils Zimmermann