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100 days to go until the EU Referendum, and it is still very muchProject Fear vs Project Fear. Tactically, this makes sense for both sides. The campaign mastermind behind the Tory General Election success, Lynton Crosby, weighed in with an article in The Daily Telegraph today,arguing that the risk factor matters. A lot. “Poignantly, the challenge for both campaigns is the same: to raise the importance of the referendum outcome and demonstrate to their voters that there really is the potential for Leave to win,” he writes.
So, Leave voters are the most enthusiastic, and the more they believe they can win, the more support Leave will galvanise. And the more Remain thinks Leave will win, the more voters it is likely to turn out. And being able to mobilise turnout is likely to be crucial. A newORB/Telegraph poll out today finds that when taking likely voter turnout into account, Leave would win on 52% vs Remain on 45%. If you don’t take likelihood to vote into account, the campaign is neck-and-neck with Leave on 49% and Remain on 47%.
So where are we in terms of substance? Not much further. David Cameron pushed his broad themes (security, prosperity, and jobs) at a speech last week at a Vauxhall car plant (can you tell how important the auto industry is to this debate?) and this afternoon. He’s repeating what he’s been saying since the renegotiation wrapped up, and still challenging Outers to clearly lay out their post-Brexit vision. “A vote to leave is a vote for huge uncertainty” said Cameron. Anticipating where the debate is heading next (yes, we’ve long moved on from Norway and Switzerland), he took care to highlight that that the Canada-EU deal (CETA) “took 7 years” to strike and “it’s still not implemented.”
Meanwhile, the past week has seen both Boris Johnson and Michael Gove reiterate their case. Boris delivered his first set-piece speech on Brexit in Dartford last Friday, driving out on a Vote Leave branded lorry and accusing Remain of being “gloomadon poppers.” He spoke about opportunities in the world post-Brexit, and didn’t dwell on the topic of immigration, apart from saying a vote to Leave would give the UK back “control of our borders.” Perhaps it suits Vote Leave to allow UKIP to make the anti-immigration argument to a different audience.
Both Boris and Gove (and the other Brexit cabinet ministers) have started developing the argument that there is no off-the-shelf model of EU association outside that suits Britain’s interests. Gove told The Sunday Times, for instance, “We would create an arrangement that was bespoke for Britain. I think the problem with the different models that have been put forward is that none of them take account of Britain’s unique status.” So what would this specifically tailored, “British option” look like? Boris suggested last week and on LBC today, that it would be modelled on the Canadian option, but this is still something that the Leave side will have to develop further.
The past ten days have also witnessed some high-profile domestic interventions. Mark Carney, Govenor of the Bank of England gave evidence to the Treasury Select Committee saying Brexit was the “biggest domestic risk,” to financial stability. Then The Sun splashed that the Queen was privately in favour of Brexit citing “impeccable sources.” Buckingham Palace denied the allegations, and following a formal complaint, an official investigation is now underway. But The Sun is sticking to guns. This leaves us to play the “whodunnit” guessing games as to who the mole could be. (Guesses?)
The only person who didn’t have an opinion on Brexit, it appeared, was the Archbishop of Canterbury. Until he did, that is. While not backing either side, he urged for a “really visionary debate about what our country looks like.”
Expect a lot more high-profile interventions, including from the leader of the free world himself, President Barack Obama. But after accusing Britain (and France) of ‘free riding’ on US power, Obama may be less of an asset to the Remain camp than has been assumed.
Until next week then…… |
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