domingo, 1 de maio de 2016

NUCLEAR

Nuclear accidents make mutant bugs and birds

Biologist Timothy Mousseau has spent years collecting mutant bugs, birds and mice around Chernobyl and Fukushima. In a DW interview, he shares some surprising insights into the effects of nuclear accidents on wildlife.
Firebugs collected near Fukushima (Photo: Mousseau & Moller)
DW: Professor Timothy Mousseau, did you collect these mutant firebugs [pictured at the top of the page]?
Timothy Mousseau: Yes, the firebugs are really an eye-opener. My research partner Anders Moller and I were visiting Chernobyl on April 26, 2011. We were wandering around Pripyat collecting flowers, to study their pollen, when Anders reached down to the ground and pulled up this little bug with red and black markings. He said: "Tim, look, it's a mutant - it's missing an eye spot!"
From then on we started collecting these little bugs in each place we visited, from the most contaminated parts of the Red Forest to relatively clean areas in abandoned villages. Eventually we had several hundred of these little critters. It was very obvious that deformed patterns were much more prevalent in areas of high contamination.
This is just one of many similar anecdotes about the deformed critters of Chernobyl. Literally every rock we turn over, we find a signal of the mutagenic properties of the radiation in the region.
Birds from Chernobyl (Photo: T.A. Mousseau)
A pair of great tit birds collected near Chernobyl - left is normal, the individual on the right has a facial tumor
Is there a threshold of radiation below which there's no effect?
The impact of radiation on rates of mutation, cancer and mortality varies a good deal by species. But statistically, there's a simple relationship with dose. Small dose, small effect; big dose, big effect. There doesn't appear to be a threshold below which there's no effect.
Interestingly, organisms living in nature are much more sensitive to radiation than lab animals - comparing mice raised in labs and mice in the wild, exposed to identical levels of ionizing radiation, the mortality rate among wild mice is eight or 10 times that of lab mice. It's because lab animals are protected from most stressors - like cold or hunger.
Are plants and trees affected too?
Yes, we've collected a lot of deformed pollen. Seen a lot of deformed trees, too. Pines often show growth-form abnormalities, even in normal areas with no radionucleotide contamination. Sometimes it's an insect infestation, sometimes a hard freeze at the wrong time - you can find such anomalies anywhere.
But in contaminated areas of Ukraine, we have a correlation between frequency of abnormality and the Chernobyl event. It's pretty strong evidence. There was a recent paper showing a very similar phenomenon in Fukushima. The trees there are very young, but will likely also be twisted up in knots 30 years from now!
Timothy Mousseau and his crew study the biological effects of nuclear accidents (Photo: T.A. Mousseau)
Mousseau's field crew collecting pollen and insect samples on the left, with the Chernobyl reactor in the distance. Right, a mutant pine tree at Chernobyl
What are the long-term effects of radiation on animal or plant species in contaminated areas? They've had their genomes altered. Will mutants persist?
Well, in the long run, no. The thing is, some background rate of mutations happens constantly in every species, even in uncontaminated areas - albeit at a much lower rate than in areas contaminated by nuclear accidents. So most genetic variants have been tried already. The great majority are either neutral or slightly deleterious. If a mutation had any benefit to offer, it would already be there in the population.
So the long-term effect of nuclear accidents on biodiversity is … none?
Yes, that's right. Over evolutionary time, we expect that populations will return to normal after the mutagen disappears. Radionucleotides decay, hot sites eventually cool down, mutations become less frequent again, and healthy animal and plant populations recolonize the sites. So the genetic status quo ante returns - except if mutations have occurred that permanently enhance fitness, but that's very rare.
Biologists Timothy Mousseau and Anders Moller in the field at Chernobyl (Photo: T.A. Mousseau)
Mousseau (left) and colleague Anders Moller recording measurements in the field at Chernobyl
Some mutations might persist for a while if they're adaptive during the hot phase. For example, there's selection for animals whose cells produce a higher antioxidant load, which makes them more resistant to the effects of ionizing radiation. But that protection comes at a metabolic cost. After radiation levels die down, those variants will be selected back out of the population.
Where things get complicated is when the harmful mutations are recessive, that is, when it takes two copies [one for each chromosome] for the expression of the mutation. Many mutations fall into this category. They can accumulate in populations because they're not expressed until two copies come into the same individual [one from the mother, the other from the father].
Because of this, populations can be affected by such mutations for many generations even after the mutagen is removed, and also, via dispersal, in populations that were never affected by the mutagen.
How can radioactive contamination interact with other problems that affect ecosystems, like habitat loss or climate change?
Certainly climate change is an additional stressor that is likely to interact with radiation to affect populations. We have demonstrated that while swallows in most places have moved their breeding dates forward in response to warming, in the Chernobyl area they are actually delayed. We hypothesize that this is due to the stress from the radioactive contaminants.
Trees on the ground in the Red Forest near Chernobyl in Ukraine (Photo: Mousseau & Moller)
The Red Forest near Chernobyl in Ukraine presents a high risk of fire, as a lack of bacteria prevents the trees from decaying
The biggest fear at present is related to the observation of hotter and drier summers in Ukraine, and the resulting increase in number and size of forest fires. Last summer there were three large fires, and one of them burned through some very contaminated areas.
We have predicted that such events could pose a significant threat to both human populations and the environment via re-suspension and deposition of radionuclides in the leaf litter and plant biomass.
In addition to the threat of catastrophic wildfire spreading nuclear contamination, birds and mammals also move around. Do they absorb radioactive elements in their food and water in contaminated sites, carry them elsewhere, thus dispersing the contamination more widely?
Do animals move radionuclides? Yes! I did a study years ago that showed very significant amounts of radionuclides are exported every year by birds. But it seems unlikely that the amount is enough to cause measurable health effects - unless you're eating the birds. It is known that some people living outside the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone are getting very significant doses from hunting the contaminated wild boar that leave the zone.
Mouse with eye cataract (Photo: T.A. Mousseau)
Mouse with cataract collected near Chernobyl - the more radioactive the site, the higher the frequency of defects
This year marks five years since the Fukushima accident, and 30 years since Chernobyl. How long will the contaminated zones around Chernobyl and Fukushima be mutagenic and dangerous?
Chernobyl was a nuclear fire and ongoing fission event for 10 days, with strontium, uranium and plutonium isotopes strewn into the landscape. They have long half-lives, so many areas will remain hazardous for centuries, even thousands of years.
Fukushima was largely a cesium event, and cesium radionucleotides have a relatively short half-life. The area will mostly naturally decontaminate itself within decades, at most within a couple hundred years.
Timothy Mousseau is a professor of biological sciences at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, South Carolina. He is one of the world's leading experts on the effects of radionucleotide contamination from nuclear accidents on wild bird, insect, rodent, and plant populations.
Interview: Nils Zimmermann
 
   

Primero entienda, luego invierta
   



Hace ya algunas semanas venimos advirtiendo acerca del desarrollo de algunos sucesos que pueden desencadenar en en breve, una caída importante en la bolsa de los Estados Unidos. Pero no hay que confundirse: la mayoría de las bolsas mundiales están altamente correlacionadas. Esto quiere decir que si cayera la bolsa estadounidense, lo más probable sería que cayera la mayoría de las bolsas mundiales. ¿Incluye esto a Argentina? ¿Incluye esto a Brasil? LEER MÁS…

La Finlande envisage le lancement d’un revenu universel de 800 euros mensuels

Le pays nordique, qui traverse une grave crise économique, lance une expérimentation de revenu de base. Le but est de généraliser cette mesure pour faire baisser le chômage. Un article de notre partenaire, La Tribune.
L’expérience fait beaucoup parler dans les pays anglo-saxons. La Finlande envisage de mettre en place un revenu de base de 800 euros à tous ses habitants en remplacement de l’ensemble des allocations versés par l’Etat. La proposition finale ne sera présentée par le gouvernement qu’en novembre 2016, mais si cette expérience est menée à son terme, le pays nordique serait le premier à se lancer au niveau national dans la réalisation effective de cette vieille idée. Cette proposition dépendra d’une expérimentation qui sera menée en parallèle. L’étude pourrait faire varier le montant final de la somme versée.
Le principe du revenu de base repose sur l’aspect généralisé et inconditionnel de ce versement. Il doit également se substituer à toute autre forme de transfert social conditionné ou non, comme l’assurance chômage ou les allocations familiales. L’idée qui préside à ce revenu de base est que les demandeurs d’emploi seront davantage motivés pour chercher des emplois. Les détracteurs du revenu de base y voient un « encouragement à la paresse », mais ce pourrait aussi être un moyen pour beaucoup de reprendre des études et, donc, de changer plus aisément d’emploi.
Les trois buts visés par le gouvernement
L’ambition du gouvernement de droite finlandais est triple,selon Olli Kangas, un des scientifiques qui travaillent sur le projet. D’abord, le revenu de base pourrait favoriser le travail partiel et temporaire. Les salariés disposant du « matelas de sécurité » du revenu de base seraient moins hésitants à accepter des tâches réduites et ponctuelles. Dans l’esprit du gouvernement, ceci contribuera à « fluidifier » le marché du travail et améliorerait la compétitivité des entreprises finlandaises, actuellement bien à la peine. Depuis quelques mois, le gouvernement impose des « réformes » sévères pour aller dans ce sens.
Deuxième objectif : supprimer les « découragements » à la recherche du travail. S’appuyant sur l’idée que le chômage repose sur le manque de volonté des demandeurs d’emploi, les concepteurs du revenu de base entendent encourager ceux qui, jusqu’ici touchaient des allocations chômage supérieures aux 800 euros mensuels à trouver rapidement un emploi. Une meilleure formation, soutenue par ce revenu de base, peut favoriser une meilleure mobilité professionnelle.
Enfin, Olli Kangas entend simplifier le système des allocations sociales en réduisant la bureaucratie. Le premier ministre finlandais, Juha Sipilä, du parti du centre, un parti de centre-droit plutôt libéral, a précisé que, selon lui, « un revenu de base signifie un système de sécurité sociale simplifié. » Le caractère inconditionnel et généralisé du revenu de base réduira le besoin de vérifier et remplir les modifications de revenus des allocataires. Les dépenses de l’État pourraient donc être réduites.
Coût ou gain ?
Pour la Finlande, la facture de cette expérience pourrait s’élever à 46,7 milliards d’euros par an, car le revenu de base n’est pas imposable. En 2013, selon l’office finlandais des statistiques, l’ensemble des dépenses sociales s’élevait à 50,43 milliards d’euros. Il y aurait donc une économie pour le budget du pays, sans compter les retombées attendues, si, effectivement, cette mesure est capable de réduire le taux de chômage et les dépenses administratives.
Grave crise
La Finlande traverse actuellement une des plus graves crises de son histoire économique de l’après-guerre. Le PIB du pays a reculé au troisième trimestre de 0,5 % sur un trimestre et de 0,2 % sur un an. L’économie du pays ne progresse plus depuis près de deux ans. Son taux de chômage se situe à 9,5 % de la population active en termes européens, contre 7,6 % voici trois ans. Le pays souffre d’une forte baisse de sa compétitivité par rapport à l’Allemagne, notamment. C’est là le problème principal de l’emploi dans le pays et la question de l’incitation au retour à l’emploi ne peut jouer qu’à la marge.
Trouver le bon montant
Dans un pays où le gouvernement multiplie les mesures d’austérité sans parvenir à redresser la croissance, la question du revenu de base sera celle de sa perception. 69 % des Finlandais y sont favorables selon les sondages, mais il faudra constater ses effets globaux sur la demande interne du pays. Pour certains, le revenu de base représentera une perte de revenus, pour d’autres un gain. Le plus difficile sera donc de trouver le bon curseur. L’expérience finlandaise risque donc de faire encore parler.